Asteroid 2024 YR4, a recently discovered space rock, has been making headlines due to its potential threat to Earth. With a 2% chance of impact in 2032, astronomers are working tirelessly to gather more data and refine the asteroid's trajectory and size estimate. The asteroid is estimated to be around 131 to 295 feet wide, which is comparable to the size of a large building. While the odds of an impact are slim, the potential consequences of such an event are severe, and astronomers are taking a proactive approach to understand the asteroid's composition and orbit.
The asteroid was first discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, on December 27, 2024. Since then, astronomers have been using a range of telescopes, including the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Danish Telescope, and the Very Large Telescope in Chile, to track the asteroid's movement. The James Webb Space Telescope is also set to join the effort in March 2025, providing more accurate measurements of the asteroid's size and orbit. The asteroid is currently more than 30 million miles away from Earth and is moving farther away over time.
Understanding the exact size of the asteroid is crucial in estimating the risks associated with a potential impact. If the asteroid is found to be on the larger end of its estimated size range, the impact could produce blast damage as far as 50 kilometers from the impact site. The potential for damage arises due to the incredibly high speed at which the asteroid would enter the atmosphere, approximately 17 kilometers per second. Astronomers are using the infrared capabilities of the James Webb Space Telescope to measure the heat reflected by the asteroid, providing a more accurate size estimate.
The impact risk corridor of the asteroid stretches eastwards from the Pacific Ocean, over South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Middle East, and into Asia, passing over several major cities, including Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos, Khartoum, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Dhaka. The combined population of these cities is over 110 million, and the destructive potential of the asteroid is equivalent to 8 million tons of TNT, roughly 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The asteroid's impact zone would have a radius of around 50 kilometers, and the effects could be devastating if it is found to be on a collision course with Earth.
While the odds of an impact are low, astronomers are taking a proactive approach to prepare for any potential threat. NASA has already successfully tested technologies to deflect asteroids, and other space agencies are working on contingency measures. The asteroid will remain on the risk list until it is back in view in June 2028, and scientists will continue to monitor its movement and refine its trajectory. With the help of advanced telescopes and space-based observatories, astronomers are working to stay ahead of potential threats and ensure the safety of our planet.
